Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +100 OHIO +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -1.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -2.8 (+5.8) | 153.8 (-6.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -1.4 (+4.4) | 152.1 (-5.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -1.3 (+4.3) | 154.4 (-7.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -1.8 (+4.8) | 154.1 (-7.1) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | OHIO 95 – 83 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | OHIO 91 – 80 BUF |
| Jan 8, 2025 | OHIO 88 – 79 BUF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 BUF |
| Jan 31, 2024 | OHIO 91 – 70 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#230) | 2.3 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#216) | 0.57 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#211) | 0.81 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#183) | 0.520 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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