Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UK -600 LSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UK -11.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -9.8 (-6.8) | 139.3 (+5.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -7.5 (-4.5) | 141.3 (+3.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -8.3 (-5.3) | 140.8 (+4.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -8.2 (-5.2) | 140.0 (+5.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UK 87 – 82 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | UK 75 – 74 LSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UK 95 – 64 LSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | LSU 75 – 74 UK |
| Feb 24, 2022 | UK 71 – 66 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 6-4 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#39) | 4.2 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#65) | 2.88 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#70) | 3.66 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#88) | 0.596 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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