Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UK -1000 LSU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +31 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UK -12.8 (+18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -13.8 (+17.2) | 159.9 (-0.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -12.1 (+18.9) | 163.4 (-4.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -12.4 (+18.6) | 161.1 (-2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -12.1 (+18.9) | 159.2 (-0.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UK 87 – 82 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | UK 75 – 74 LSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | LSU 75 – 74 UK |
| Jan 4, 2023 | UK 74 – 71 LSU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | UK 71 – 66 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 18.5 (#14) | 9.0 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#9) | 1.51 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.89 (#12) | 1.83 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#14) | 0.516 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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