They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
Kentucky Wildcats
95 64
FINAL Conference
LSU Tigers
Southeastern Conference · Rupp Arena · March 5, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UK -12.5 Home covered
O/U 156.5 Over
Money UK -1000 / LSU +600
Model Predictions
Spread Total UK win
Actual UK +31 159 Won
Massey UK -12.8 (+18.2)
Massey Totals 160.5 (-1.5)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 94%
Efficiency Plus ML UK -12.1 (+18.9) 163.4 (-4.4) 86%
Baseline Tuned ML UK -12.4 (+18.6) 161.1 (-2.1) 87%
Baseline ML UK -12.1 (+18.9) 159.2 (-0.2) 87%
Baseline Plus ML UK -13.8 (+17.2) 159.9 (-0.9) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 11, 2026 UK 8782 LSU
Jan 15, 2026 UK 7574 LSU
Feb 22, 2024 LSU 7574 UK
Jan 4, 2023 UK 7471 LSU
Feb 24, 2022 UK 7166 LSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UK LSU
Overall 24-12 14-18
Conference 10-8 3-15
Home 15-3 11-7
Away 4-6 2-8
Neutral 5-3 1-3
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L6
Avg Pts For 84.4 73.8
Avg Pts Against 77.2 73.6
Massey 18.5 (#14) 9.0 (#63)
Bradley-Terry 3.26 (#9) 1.51 (#63)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.89 (#12) 1.83 (#67)
RPI 0.622 (#14) 0.516 (#153)
Shooting & Four Factors UK LSU
FG% 48.3% 45.0%
3PT% 37.3% 31.1%
REB / G 38.8 36.2
OREB / G 10.3 10.7
AST / TO 1.54 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.2% 51.8%
TOV% 15.1% 18.3%
ORB% 29.4% 30.7%
FT Rate 25.9% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.9% 47.4%
Opp TOV% 13.9% 16.7%
DRB% 73.4% 65.4%
Opp FT Rate 22.7% 21.0%

Game Analysis

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