Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | LSU +188 UK -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UK -3.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -2.1 (+3.1) | 168.1 (-19.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -2.3 (+3.3) | 163.4 (-14.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -2.2 (+3.2) | 166.8 (-17.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -2.0 (+3.0) | 166.4 (-17.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UK 87 – 82 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | UK 75 – 74 LSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UK 95 – 64 LSU |
| Jan 4, 2023 | UK 74 – 71 LSU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | UK 71 – 66 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 89.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#80) | 14.5 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#94) | 2.18 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#86) | 2.77 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#112) | 0.583 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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