Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UK -6.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -7.4 (-2.4) | 145.2 (-8.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -7.3 (-2.3) | 144.3 (-7.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -7.3 (-2.3) | 145.8 (-8.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -6.9 (-1.9) | 145.8 (-8.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UK 87 – 82 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | UK 75 – 74 LSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UK 95 – 64 LSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | LSU 75 – 74 UK |
| Jan 4, 2023 | UK 74 – 71 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 18-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 20.3 (#3) | 16.5 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#9) | 2.35 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.16 (#7) | 2.93 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#7) | 0.610 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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