What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
Kentucky Wildcats
87 82
FINAL Neutral Conference SEC
LSU Tigers
Southeastern Conference · Bridgestone Arena (Neutral) · March 11, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread UK -8.5 Away covered
O/U 151.5 Over
Money UK -440 / LSU +340
Model Predictions
Spread Total UK win
Actual UK +5 169 Won
Massey UK -6.7 (-1.7)
Massey Totals 155.5 (+13.5)
Bradley-Terry 81%
Weighted B-T 84%
Efficiency Plus ML UK -7.8 (-2.8) 152.6 (+16.4) 80%
Baseline Tuned ML UK -7.7 (-2.7) 152.9 (+16.1) 79%
Baseline ML UK -9.0 (-4.0) 152.1 (+16.9) 75%
Baseline Plus ML UK -9.6 (-4.6) 153.6 (+15.4) 79%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 15, 2026 UK 7574 LSU
Mar 5, 2025 UK 9564 LSU
Feb 22, 2024 LSU 7574 UK
Jan 4, 2023 UK 7471 LSU
Feb 24, 2022 UK 7166 LSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UK LSU
Overall 22-14 15-17
Conference 10-8 3-15
Home 14-4 9-8
Away 4-6 3-7
Neutral 4-4 3-2
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 80.5 81.4
Avg Pts Against 74.3 78.5
Massey 16.9 (#24) 10.2 (#60)
Bradley-Terry 2.49 (#32) 1.06 (#87)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.31 (#31) 1.64 (#77)
RPI 0.574 (#48) 0.510 (#153)
Shooting & Four Factors UK LSU
FG% 46.6% 47.0%
3PT% 34.9% 33.3%
REB / G 38.3 36.9
OREB / G 12.3 11.2
AST / TO 1.52 1.34
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.4% 52.8%
TOV% 15.3% 15.6%
ORB% 34.7% 33.1%
FT Rate 27.1% 31.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.7% 50.8%
Opp TOV% 15.5% 14.2%
DRB% 70.6% 68.3%
Opp FT Rate 26.8% 26.4%

Game Analysis

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