Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UK -440 LSU +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +5 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UK -6.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -7.3 (-2.3) | 153.3 (+15.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -6.2 (-1.2) | 152.6 (+16.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -6.3 (-1.3) | 152.4 (+16.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -7.2 (-2.2) | 152.1 (+16.9) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | UK 75 – 74 LSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UK 95 – 64 LSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | LSU 75 – 74 UK |
| Jan 4, 2023 | UK 74 – 71 LSU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | UK 71 – 66 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#24) | 10.2 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#32) | 1.06 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#31) | 1.64 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#48) | 0.510 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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