Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | LSU +150 UK -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -0.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -1.8 (-2.8) | 153.1 (-4.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -1.3 (-2.3) | 149.5 (-0.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -2.0 (-3.0) | 151.0 (-2.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -2.0 (-3.0) | 152.9 (-3.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UK 87 – 82 LSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UK 95 – 64 LSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | LSU 75 – 74 UK |
| Jan 4, 2023 | UK 74 – 71 LSU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | UK 71 – 66 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-8 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#40) | 17.0 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#52) | 1.62 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#53) | 2.59 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#61) | 0.549 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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