I like bread and butter. I like toast and jam. "Bread and Butter" - The Newbeats
Big 12 Conference · United Supermarkets Arena · January 4, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread KU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money TTU -111 / KU -115
Model Predictions
Spread Total TTU win
Actual KU +3 147 Lost
Massey TTU -0.6 (-3.6)
Massey Totals 140.4 (+6.6)
Bradley-Terry 9%
Weighted B-T 6%
Efficiency Plus ML TTU -2.4 (-5.4) 143.7 (+3.3) 48%
Baseline Tuned ML TTU -0.1 (-3.1) 144.4 (+2.6) 45%
Baseline ML TTU -0.9 (-3.9) 146.2 (+0.8) 41%
Baseline Plus ML TTU -0.5 (-3.5) 146.5 (+0.5) 47%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 3, 2026 KU 6461 TTU
Mar 1, 2025 TTU 7873 KU
Feb 13, 2024 TTU 7950 KU
Mar 1, 2023 KU 6763 TTU
Mar 12, 2022 KU 7465 TTU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TTU KU
Overall 16-16 28-8
Conference 5-13 13-5
Home 11-6 15-1
Away 3-7 7-4
Neutral 2-3 6-3
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 73.3 75.4
Avg Pts Against 69.0 68.1
Massey 12.4 (#26) 16.1 (#10)
Bradley-Terry 1.00 (#90) 4.07 (#1)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.20 (#96) 4.91 (#4)
RPI 0.513 (#152) 0.682 (#1)
Shooting & Four Factors TTU KU
FG% 50.4% 48.1%
3PT% 36.7% 36.9%
REB / G 36.2 38.2
OREB / G 9.8 11.0
AST / TO 1.08 1.47
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.2% 54.4%
TOV% 20.5% 17.5%
ORB% 32.2% 31.8%
FT Rate 29.4% 17.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.7% 45.5%
Opp TOV% 23.9% 22.5%
DRB% 73.7% 71.7%
Opp FT Rate 18.9% 20.6%

Game Analysis

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