Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +138 UNM -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -6.7 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -5.2 (+9.2) | 136.9 (+1.1) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -4.6 (+8.6) | 134.3 (+3.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -6.9 (+10.9) | 136.3 (+1.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -6.8 (+10.8) | 138.6 (-0.6) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNM 80 – 78 FRES |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNM 83 – 74 FRES |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNM 95 – 67 FRES |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNM 103 – 89 FRES |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UNM 79 – 58 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 15-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 80.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#164) | 11.5 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#257) | 3.95 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#220) | 5.50 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#239) | 0.619 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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