Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | MUR +200 BRAD -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -5.8 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -4.2 (+13.2) | 131.0 (-6.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -2.2 (+11.2) | 130.0 (-5.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -5.5 (+14.5) | 130.9 (-5.9) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -5.6 (+14.6) | 132.0 (-7.0) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BRAD 87 – 78 MUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MUR 86 – 66 BRAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 62 MUR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BRAD 85 – 83 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BRAD 74 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#192) | 8.9 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#169) | 1.10 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#181) | 1.37 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#191) | 0.554 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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