Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -110 UAPB +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -0.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -3.7 (+10.3) | 141.1 (+4.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -4.0 (+10.0) | 139.1 (+6.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -2.4 (+11.6) | 137.9 (+8.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -2.4 (+11.6) | 138.8 (+7.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALST 79 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 5, 2026 | UAPB 90 – 79 ALST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALST 75 – 63 UAPB |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ALST 93 – 91 UAPB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UAPB 80 – 74 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 5-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-18 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#350) | -9.4 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#295) | -3.04 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#292) | -4.35 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#279) | 0.418 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.6% | 35.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.4% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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