Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | BU -275 LAF +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | BU -6.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -4.9 (-0.9) | 130.5 (+11.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -6.1 (-2.1) | 131.8 (+10.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -4.7 (-0.7) | 130.4 (+11.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -4.8 (-0.8) | 131.4 (+10.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | BU 77 – 73 LAF |
| Jan 8, 2026 | BU 83 – 67 LAF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BU 66 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LAF 60 – 46 BU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BU 62 – 48 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#232) | -5.6 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#232) | -2.50 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#246) | -2.94 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#238) | 0.424 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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