Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -175 CSUF +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +15 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -8.3 (-23.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -5.3 (-20.3) | 138.5 (+0.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -4.4 (-19.4) | 136.1 (+2.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -5.1 (-20.1) | 136.2 (+2.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -5.2 (-20.2) | 137.8 (+1.2) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | CSUF 78 – 72 UCR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCR 81 – 72 CSUF |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCR 64 – 59 CSUF |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCR 75 – 68 CSUF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCR 84 – 74 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 9-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#141) | -2.3 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#114) | -0.24 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#130) | -0.52 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#127) | 0.479 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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