Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA -800 USC +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -17.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -14.2 (-12.2) | 141.6 (-23.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -13.1 (-11.1) | 142.8 (-24.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -13.3 (-11.3) | 142.9 (-24.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -13.8 (-11.8) | 143.0 (-25.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCLA 89 – 68 USC |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UCLA 81 – 62 USC |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCLA 90 – 63 USC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UCLA 82 – 76 USC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USC 62 – 56 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.7 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 19.5 (#4) | 6.4 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#20) | 1.64 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.30 (#18) | 1.94 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#17) | 0.577 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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