Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | STO -110 WAG +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | STO -4.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -1.7 (+2.3) | 135.8 (-15.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -0.6 (+3.4) | 132.8 (-12.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -1.6 (+2.4) | 134.2 (-14.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -1.8 (+2.2) | 135.4 (-15.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | WAG 68 – 57 STO |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STO 69 – 60 WAG |
| Feb 21, 2025 | WAG 63 – 57 STO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | STO 73 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STO 71 – 61 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 7-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-12 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 61.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#299) | -7.4 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#303) | -0.77 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#309) | -1.59 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#243) | 0.443 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 5.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 16.7% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 42.1% |
Game Analysis
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