Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | FAU -138 UAB +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +2 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -7.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -6.9 (-4.9) | 154.0 (+20.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -5.5 (-3.5) | 151.3 (+22.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -6.9 (-4.9) | 150.1 (+23.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -6.2 (-4.2) | 151.3 (+22.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | FAU 76 – 71 UAB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UAB 89 – 80 FAU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UAB 81 – 76 FAU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UAB 76 – 73 FAU |
| Jan 14, 2024 | FAU 86 – 73 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 17-2 |
| Away | 11-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#16) | 9.8 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#14) | 1.72 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#19) | 2.21 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#18) | 0.585 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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