Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UND +150 SDAK -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +2 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | UND -3.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -1.7 (-3.7) | 139.9 (-17.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -0.2 (-2.2) | 139.9 (-17.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -1.0 (-3.0) | 143.6 (-21.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UND -0.9 (-2.9) | 144.0 (-22.0) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UND 72 – 71 SDAK |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UND 96 – 80 SDAK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SDAK 92 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SDAK 102 – 93 UND |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UND 95 – 66 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#316) | -8.0 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#310) | -0.50 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#311) | -0.81 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#322) | 0.468 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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