Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | GASO +225 MRSH -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -7.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -5.7 (+10.7) | 138.3 (+18.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -6.2 (+11.2) | 136.3 (+20.7) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -5.2 (+10.2) | 135.7 (+21.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -5.9 (+10.9) | 137.3 (+19.7) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | GASO 82 – 78 MRSH |
| Feb 28, 2026 | GASO 99 – 82 MRSH |
| Feb 15, 2026 | GASO 101 – 87 MRSH |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MRSH 71 – 67 GASO |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MRSH 81 – 69 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 24-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#219) | 9.3 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#180) | 1.21 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#176) | 1.61 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#193) | 0.552 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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