Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -162 GASO +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +4 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -3.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -1.4 (-5.4) | 162.1 (-2.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -2.4 (-6.4) | 164.4 (-4.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -1.8 (-5.8) | 160.9 (-0.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -1.8 (-5.8) | 161.4 (-1.4) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | GASO 99 – 82 MRSH |
| Feb 15, 2026 | GASO 101 – 87 MRSH |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MRSH 71 – 67 GASO |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MRSH 81 – 69 GASO |
| Feb 29, 2024 | GASO 87 – 73 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#182) | -4.6 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#138) | -0.35 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#170) | -0.68 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#84) | 0.475 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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