Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | COLG -350 NAVY +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -7.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -7.0 (+7.0) | 148.7 (+11.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -5.9 (+8.1) | 145.8 (+14.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -6.5 (+7.5) | 150.3 (+9.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -6.6 (+7.4) | 150.6 (+9.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 69 COLG |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 80 COLG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | COLG 79 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 16, 2025 | COLG 73 – 66 NAVY |
| Feb 3, 2024 | COLG 88 – 64 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 11-4 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#126) | -0.9 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#198) | -0.03 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#170) | -0.39 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#206) | 0.494 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 42.0% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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