Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UTM -110 SEMO +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +5 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -1.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -1.5 (+3.5) | 154.4 (+14.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -1.3 (+3.7) | 156.0 (+13.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -1.4 (+3.6) | 150.6 (+18.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -0.9 (+4.1) | 152.3 (+16.7) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SEMO 56 – 53 UTM |
| Jan 21, 2026 | SEMO 66 – 50 UTM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SEMO 90 – 79 UTM |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTM 66 – 63 SEMO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTM 82 – 72 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#284) | -3.0 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#236) | -0.50 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#269) | -0.63 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#252) | 0.478 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 34.8% |
Game Analysis
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