Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | USD -275 PAC +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +2 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | USD -6.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -5.5 (-7.5) | 154.2 (+11.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -5.9 (-7.9) | 153.7 (+12.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -4.6 (-6.6) | 156.0 (+10.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USD -4.6 (-6.6) | 156.1 (+9.9) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | PAC 77 – 70 USD |
| Dec 28, 2025 | USD 66 – 54 PAC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USD 81 – 77 PAC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | PAC 71 – 69 USD |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USD 75 – 65 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-9 | 7-10 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#178) | -2.4 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#192) | -0.79 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#150) | -0.97 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#196) | 0.434 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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