Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | STET +110 JAX -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | STET -2.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -2.1 (+9.9) | 129.4 (+4.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -0.9 (+11.1) | 128.6 (+5.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -1.6 (+10.4) | 131.0 (+3.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -0.6 (+11.4) | 132.2 (+1.8) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | JAX 89 – 85 STET |
| Feb 12, 2026 | STET 67 – 62 JAX |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JAX 79 – 72 STET |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JAX 74 – 65 STET |
| Mar 8, 2024 | STET 88 – 87 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#194) | 0.2 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#159) | 0.98 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#165) | 1.28 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#143) | 0.565 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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