Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -225 ODU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -9.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -4.7 (+2.3) | 134.1 (+14.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -6.3 (+0.7) | 135.9 (+13.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -6.4 (+0.6) | 135.8 (+13.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -5.4 (+1.6) | 136.2 (+12.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TROY 83 – 77 ODU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | TROY 75 – 59 ODU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | TROY 86 – 73 ODU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#90) | 0.3 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#146) | 0.46 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#121) | 0.49 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#164) | 0.545 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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