Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | ODU +220 TROY -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ODU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +6 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -5.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -6.5 (+0.5) | 158.4 (+1.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -5.4 (-0.6) | 150.6 (+9.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -5.4 (-0.6) | 152.6 (+7.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -4.8 (-1.2) | 157.0 (+3.0) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2025 | TROY 75 – 59 ODU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | TROY 86 – 73 ODU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TROY 78 – 71 ODU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ODU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-14 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#245) | 3.4 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#276) | 1.03 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#279) | 0.74 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#225) | 0.578 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ODU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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