Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -175 ODU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +13 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -6.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -5.2 (+7.8) | 149.7 (+9.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -4.1 (+8.9) | 146.9 (+12.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -4.0 (+9.0) | 147.8 (+11.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -4.1 (+8.9) | 149.6 (+9.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TROY 83 – 77 ODU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | TROY 75 – 59 ODU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TROY 78 – 71 ODU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-9 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#226) | -4.9 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#310) | -0.74 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#291) | -0.95 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#280) | 0.477 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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