Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -700 ODU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -11.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -8.6 (+7.4) | 130.7 (+3.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -10.0 (+6.0) | 132.1 (+1.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -9.1 (+6.9) | 130.7 (+3.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -9.2 (+6.8) | 130.3 (+3.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TROY 83 – 77 ODU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | TROY 86 – 73 ODU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TROY 78 – 71 ODU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 9-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#112) | -8.3 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#135) | -0.98 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#130) | -1.27 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#104) | 0.457 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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