Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | HC +230 AMER -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -7.2 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -5.6 (+0.6) | 127.7 (+13.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -6.4 (+1.4) | 127.4 (+13.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -7.5 (+2.5) | 129.6 (+11.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -6.6 (+1.6) | 131.0 (+10.0) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AMER 76 – 67 HC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HC 84 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | AMER 74 – 65 HC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AMER 75 – 64 HC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HC 58 – 56 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#334) | 1.2 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#330) | 0.35 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#320) | 0.33 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#332) | 0.483 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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