Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU +130 SDST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +6 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -0.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -0.1 (+6.1) | 139.5 (-15.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -0.5 (+6.5) | 136.7 (-12.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -0.2 (+6.2) | 139.1 (-15.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -0.3 (+5.7) | 138.4 (-14.4) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NDSU 74 – 66 SDST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 SDST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | NDSU 77 – 68 SDST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SDST 72 – 62 NDSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SDST 78 – 61 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#265) | -2.0 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#314) | 0.45 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#300) | 0.03 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#270) | 0.548 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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