Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | USA -275 ARST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +18 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | USA -12.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -8.3 (+9.7) | 130.8 (-22.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -7.6 (+10.4) | 127.8 (-19.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -8.5 (+9.5) | 133.0 (-25.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -8.9 (+9.1) | 133.4 (-25.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | USA 92 – 88 ARST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | USA 91 – 87 ARST |
| Mar 9, 2025 | ARST 74 – 71 USA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USA 60 – 56 ARST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USA 76 – 62 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#168) | -8.0 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#215) | -0.88 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#199) | -1.48 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#161) | 0.422 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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