Betting Lines
| Spread | SIUE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SIUE -275 TNST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIUE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIUE +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | SIUE -12.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIUE -9.9 (-0.9) | 146.4 (+6.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIUE -9.6 (-0.6) | 147.6 (+5.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIUE -10.0 (-1.0) | 146.6 (+6.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIUE -10.0 (-1.0) | 146.1 (+6.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TNST 80 – 53 SIUE |
| Jan 23, 2026 | SIUE 74 – 66 TNST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SIUE 71 – 69 TNST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SIUE 84 – 72 TNST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SIUE 87 – 80 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIUE | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#131) | -6.2 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#118) | -1.59 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#126) | -2.15 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#138) | 0.377 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIUE | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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