Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UL -138 USM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | USM -3.4 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -3.0 (+17.0) | 149.1 (-13.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -1.0 (+15.0) | 146.1 (-10.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -2.7 (+16.7) | 147.8 (-11.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -2.9 (+16.9) | 148.3 (-12.3) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USM 74 – 67 UL |
| Dec 19, 2025 | USM 62 – 54 UL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UL 62 – 60 USM |
| Jan 26, 2025 | USM 67 – 59 UL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UL 77 – 61 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-0 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#150) | 9.0 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#112) | 2.08 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#104) | 2.67 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#96) | 0.601 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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