Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TAR +100 SUU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -1.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -1.0 (+2.0) | 153.1 (-20.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -0.2 (+3.2) | 148.2 (-15.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -1.2 (+1.8) | 155.1 (-22.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -0.1 (+2.9) | 155.4 (-22.4) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TAR 78 – 74 SUU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | TAR 62 – 59 SUU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SUU 106 – 105 TAR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TAR 75 – 58 SUU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TAR 74 – 66 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#186) | 2.0 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#184) | 0.43 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#183) | 0.47 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#169) | 0.525 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 28.6 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 35.6% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.3% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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