Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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90–35 on winners spread MAE 8.3 125 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Villanova @ Marquette +10.0 144.6 83% 74–87 ✓
Long Island University @ Saint Francis -0.8 133.0 43% 64–74 ✗
Wagner @ Mercyhurst +1.2 123.8 55% 66–71 ✓
Chicago State @ Stonehill +10.1 131.6 86% 73–75 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Le Moyne -7.1 135.8 22% 93–70 ✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky -3.4 137.9 37% 79–59 ✓
Kent State @ Ohio +0.9 139.0 58% 59–61 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Dayton +5.4 144.0 73% 72–77 ✓
Michigan @ Purdue +4.0 147.4 66% 64–91 ✓
Penn State @ Iowa +2.3 162.7 64% 75–76 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +8.8 133.2 80% 61–75 ✓
UCLA @ Washington -4.4 139.9 34% 65–60 ✓
SMU @ NC State -3.1 144.7 36% 63–57 ✓
Campbell @ Hofstra +4.4 129.9 68% 69–67 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook +1.0 143.1 50% 74–89 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse -7.6 150.8 22% 77–73 ✓
Howard @ Norfolk State +11.3 153.4 85% 75–92 ✓
Georgetown @ Providence +1.4 135.6 56% 68–78 ✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina -5.2 139.5 29% 65–60 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina +4.2 144.2 69% 55–64 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State -4.1 153.6 32% 74–56 ✓
Bucknell @ Boston University -0.3 130.7 49% 82–85 ✗
UMBC @ Vermont +2.3 139.2 64% 80–63 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State +9.4 141.9 86% 50–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ Queens University +0.5 140.6 51% 87–77 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ VMI -6.6 139.8 25% 60–57 ✓
Western Carolina @ The Citadel +1.5 132.1 56% 80–78 ✗
Marist @ Canisius -7.0 133.7 21% 70–47 ✓
Siena @ Iona +0.4 137.9 53% 68–72 ✓
Michigan State @ Rutgers -5.7 148.0 27% 81–74 ✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton +15.6 137.0 89% 54–79 ✓
Iowa State @ Arizona State -5.0 143.1 28% 76–61 ✓
Winthrop @ High Point +9.2 160.9 82% 62–84 ✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle -1.3 147.5 46% 64–70 ✗
Saint Louis @ George Washington +1.9 141.8 62% 61–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Bradley +11.2 144.6 86% 57–61 ✓
Holy Cross @ Loyola Maryland +1.4 141.3 58% 70–65 ✗
Cornell @ Princeton +2.5 152.8 65% 85–76 ✗
Harvard @ Yale +14.7 143.3 88% 55–84 ✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania -2.8 148.2 35% 78–93 ✗
Dartmouth @ Brown +4.0 145.0 65% 84–83 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +11.8 146.6 87% 80–97 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +12.3 148.9 87% 69–83 ✓
Oakland @ Robert Morris +1.6 136.9 62% 71–73 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis -6.4 157.4 25% 91–80 ✓
Delaware @ Drexel +3.4 143.1 68% 54–67 ✓
Monmouth @ William & Mary +8.1 151.0 81% 73–78 ✓
North Florida @ West Georgia -4.8 160.1 26% 72–92 ✗
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas -14.4 140.0 13% 68–55 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Akron +6.1 154.3 71% 75–102 ✓
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan +5.3 149.8 73% 77–90 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +9.7 137.4 85% 64–75 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Niagara +0.9 141.9 52% 86–77 ✗
Boston College @ North Carolina +16.3 146.6 90% 96–102 ✓
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt -0.3 163.7 47% 69–74 ✗
Texas A&M @ Texas +1.5 140.2 55% 69–70 ✓
Tulane @ Rice +0.9 140.8 55% 82–71 ✗
New Mexico @ UNLV -3.3 142.1 37% 75–73 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +11.4 154.6 87% 54–80 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona +14.8 149.6 88% 63–78 ✓
Southern Illinois @ UIC +7.0 149.1 80% 89–85 ✗
Stetson @ Bellarmine +0.2 146.4 51% 81–76 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Idaho +2.2 142.1 63% 80–72 ✗
Marshall @ Georgia Southern -1.8 148.3 43% 71–67 ✓
App State @ UL Monroe -12.1 129.8 13% 66–58 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +8.7 147.2 81% 65–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +14.4 141.3 88% 66–81 ✓
Georgia @ Florida +10.0 141.5 83% 59–89 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern -3.2 150.7 34% 69–61 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston +0.9 149.4 54% 75–66 ✗
Oregon @ Minnesota -5.5 140.7 27% 69–77 ✗
TCU @ UCF +3.2 145.7 61% 58–85 ✓
Temple @ UTSA -1.6 155.2 42% 79–88 ✗
Evansville @ Valparaiso +6.1 136.0 74% 78–68 ✗
Drake @ Missouri State -9.2 130.0 17% 69–62 ✓
Belmont @ Murray State +3.2 151.3 66% 95–77 ✗
Utah State @ Air Force -14.1 138.6 14% 87–58 ✓
Colgate @ American University +1.1 135.2 54% 77–81 ✓
NJIT @ UAlbany +9.1 137.1 82% 62–68 ✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State -2.5 131.4 36% 87–81 ✓
DePaul @ Butler +5.5 146.3 72% 69–86 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia State -5.9 143.4 26% 86–79 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Eastern Kentucky -2.5 141.6 39% 77–81 ✗
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian +0.3 139.1 53% 79–76 ✗
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State +5.0 143.6 73% 71–63 ✗
Manhattan @ Mount St. Mary's +2.6 146.4 62% 74–64 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama State +7.8 156.0 81% 63–66 ✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -4.9 142.4 25% 73–66 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State +6.4 151.1 73% 64–80 ✓
Duke @ Wake Forest -10.4 132.5 19% 63–56 ✓
Radford @ Presbyterian -1.7 138.7 40% 82–69 ✓
Baylor @ Utah -2.0 141.9 42% 76–61 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State -0.5 137.8 49% 81–86 ✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +5.0 148.4 74% 57–61 ✓
Incarnate Word @ SE Louisiana +6.6 141.0 77% 63–86 ✓
Furman @ Mercer -0.9 145.3 44% 79–74 ✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois -6.5 143.7 26% 66–76 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin +3.6 143.7 67% 89–85 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Western Illinois -4.4 130.2 32% 72–51 ✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville +3.2 132.8 64% 54–65 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Eastern Illinois -0.4 136.6 44% 64–60 ✓
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central -2.3 147.2 41% 77–82 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State +3.6 136.0 66% 65–64 ✗
Little Rock @ Lindenwood -3.7 132.5 32% 78–46 ✓
Clemson @ Virginia Tech -8.1 137.2 19% 72–57 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State +2.6 138.9 63% 59–76 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington -4.3 148.4 30% 67–62 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly +5.0 150.9 70% 69–78 ✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +14.0 161.1 88% 82–87 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama A&M -5.7 143.5 26% 82–78 ✓
McNeese @ UT Rio Grande Valley -6.8 142.7 24% 93–63 ✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri +2.3 142.1 61% 75–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas State -4.5 134.5 29% 60–73 ✗
Northwestern State @ Stephen F. Austin +0.1 128.0 52% 57–54 ✗
Davidson @ Richmond -2.2 138.0 41% 72–66 ✓
Houston Christian @ New Orleans -2.2 143.4 39% 86–76 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy +2.0 132.0 59% 55–65 ✓
Santa Clara @ Oregon State +3.6 150.5 66% 69–83 ✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +11.7 166.6 87% 71–90 ✓
Wofford @ Samford +4.7 146.8 71% 61–77 ✓
Liberty @ Florida International -7.1 135.6 23% 82–59 ✓
Houston @ Kansas -0.1 127.1 48% 92–86 ✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia +0.2 132.8 54% 74–59 ✗
Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -14.1 148.0 13% 83–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech +1.3 142.7 58% 69–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.