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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–37 on winners spread MAE 9.6 121 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Long Island University @ Stonehill +4.0 132.2 67% 70–60 ✗
Minnesota @ Wisconsin +16.1 144.0 89% 59–80 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Saint Francis +2.1 136.2 59% 59–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne +1.2 150.1 52% 91–86 ✗
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +10.3 127.0 84% 62–57 ✗
Siena @ Quinnipiac +3.4 139.1 67% 53–72 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Manhattan +0.2 150.1 52% 75–66 ✗
Rider @ Canisius -3.2 138.0 30% 67–85 ✗
Iona @ Fairfield +0.5 140.8 50% 64–68 ✓
UCLA @ Maryland +6.8 140.6 73% 61–79 ✓
Central Michigan @ Toledo +4.8 146.8 73% 67–69 ✓
Notre Dame @ Duke +17.7 138.1 90% 78–86 ✓
USC @ Illinois +15.3 153.6 89% 82–72 ✗
Louisville @ Pittsburgh +6.2 147.9 73% 82–78 ✗
La Salle @ St. Bonaventure +12.1 138.0 88% 83–82 ✗
Brown @ Yale +11.4 144.5 87% 58–79 ✓
Creighton @ Butler +0.5 142.5 53% 80–76 ✗
Auburn @ South Carolina -12.8 146.9 16% 66–63 ✓
Belmont @ Indiana State +0.7 164.5 53% 84–79 ✗
San Diego State @ New Mexico +0.9 141.8 54% 48–62 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +1.2 135.2 55% 65–82 ✓
NJIT @ UMass Lowell +13.3 142.8 88% 62–70 ✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire -6.4 136.8 25% 72–79 ✗
James Madison @ App State +1.1 131.9 55% 66–86 ✓
Charleston @ Monmouth -6.5 146.9 25% 73–84 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Hofstra +0.7 130.5 54% 63–66 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ohio +15.0 145.1 90% 70–108 ✓
Iowa State @ Texas Tech +0.7 147.1 45% 85–84 ✗
UConn @ Georgetown -0.9 140.3 47% 68–60 ✓
Kansas @ Cincinnati -2.9 128.7 37% 54–40 ✓
East Carolina @ Memphis +16.0 146.8 89% 70–74 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -6.5 146.6 24% 80–67 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian +1.2 147.0 54% 96–87 ✗
Longwood @ Winthrop +2.2 152.2 63% 76–95 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State +8.7 135.1 82% 67–75 ✓
BYU @ TCU +0.3 135.5 52% 67–71 ✓
Temple @ Rice +1.3 138.5 59% 73–70 ✗
South Florida @ Tulane +2.5 146.9 66% 70–73 ✓
Florida State @ Clemson +6.8 145.6 75% 57–77 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Mason +12.6 136.7 87% 70–77 ✓
Fordham @ Davidson +10.7 145.8 86% 64–74 ✓
Boston University @ Colgate +1.2 127.5 57% 50–87 ✓
Army @ Lehigh +4.0 143.2 66% 74–69 ✗
Cornell @ Columbia +2.3 158.3 66% 94–83 ✗
Princeton @ Harvard -4.2 140.9 35% 68–64 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth +6.1 142.9 75% 70–73 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine +2.7 142.0 64% 66–87 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +3.7 136.6 65% 80–72 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ William & Mary +10.8 160.0 87% 78–81 ✓
Towson @ Drexel +3.4 123.1 63% 93–82 ✗
Delaware @ Hampton +1.7 147.8 60% 77–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.8 143.2 87% 71–77 ✓
South Dakota State @ Omaha -2.3 148.9 42% 80–87 ✗
Bowling Green @ Ball State +5.3 147.4 72% 69–91 ✓
Syracuse @ Boston College +0.8 148.6 56% 79–71 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +6.1 141.8 74% 57–93 ✓
Bradley @ UIC +1.0 148.7 55% 61–60 ✗
San José State @ Air Force -3.2 133.4 38% 69–62 ✓
Old Dominion @ South Alabama +15.8 131.6 89% 71–63 ✗
Texas State @ Southern Miss -3.1 141.5 37% 88–92 ✗
North Dakota State @ Denver -12.1 155.9 15% 69–50 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky +4.5 152.7 71% 69–85 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Missouri +4.0 153.3 69% 66–75 ✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) +9.2 147.5 83% 71–91 ✓
Akron @ Eastern Michigan -4.7 152.0 34% 105–81 ✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston +4.3 150.4 70% 74–81 ✓
Florida @ Arkansas -2.0 145.0 34% 71–63 ✓
UNLV @ Colorado State +6.0 139.0 74% 62–84 ✓
Wichita State @ UTSA -2.8 156.7 36% 75–88 ✗
Georgia Tech @ SMU +10.9 151.5 85% 71–93 ✓
Virginia @ Stanford +5.0 131.6 68% 65–88 ✓
North Carolina @ NC State -4.2 150.9 32% 63–61 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard +10.2 166.5 85% 95–100 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central +9.2 147.2 83% 69–88 ✓
Delaware State @ South Carolina State +8.2 144.8 81% 76–75 ✗
Valparaiso @ Murray State +6.1 147.5 76% 47–58 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +1.3 136.6 55% 58–68 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alcorn State +5.1 141.9 70% 52–62 ✓
Vermont @ Bryant +3.7 137.0 66% 53–73 ✓
Xavier @ DePaul -2.1 149.7 44% 77–63 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State -3.2 131.1 35% 65–54 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +6.7 146.4 78% 69–81 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State +1.0 137.5 55% 74–79 ✓
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +11.7 147.6 88% 59–70 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton -7.5 133.1 22% 95–86 ✓
North Alabama @ Stetson -9.9 149.1 17% 92–64 ✓
Jacksonville @ Eastern Kentucky +0.7 141.9 55% 82–75 ✗
California Baptist @ Utah Valley +4.7 135.7 73% 69–75 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +14.8 140.6 90% 52–70 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +15.9 136.2 91% 69–92 ✓
Alabama State @ Jackson State -0.4 146.4 47% 70–77 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +4.3 154.0 71% 74–79 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian -0.7 134.4 45% 76–81 ✗
Arkansas State @ Troy +1.4 138.7 58% 84–78 ✗
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois +3.1 145.7 64% 72–52 ✗
UT Martin @ Lindenwood -0.7 132.4 46% 81–82 ✗
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State +5.5 135.9 74% 67–56 ✗
Navy @ Loyola Maryland +5.0 142.5 70% 74–75 ✓
Nicholls @ McNeese +13.1 140.3 87% 71–80 ✓
Idaho @ Portland State +1.5 142.4 62% 63–75 ✓
Seton Hall @ Providence +10.1 136.4 82% 85–91 ✓
West Georgia @ Lipscomb +15.8 139.1 90% 67–86 ✓
Queens University @ Austin Peay -1.8 140.5 45% 67–60 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +4.5 134.2 70% 84–73 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +3.0 130.5 64% 59–67 ✓
Wake Forest @ Miami -1.9 140.9 39% 88–78 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling -4.0 132.0 31% 65–59 ✓
Tennessee @ Texas -1.8 135.0 31% 74–70 ✓
Houston @ Kansas State -13.5 130.3 15% 87–57 ✓
Oklahoma @ Georgia +6.7 145.8 74% 62–72 ✓
LSU @ Ole Miss +8.5 144.4 80% 65–77 ✓
Virginia Tech @ California +5.9 146.4 75% 71–68 ✗
Rhode Island @ Richmond -5.2 139.7 27% 67–64 ✓
Evansville @ Drake +14.0 122.7 86% 40–63 ✓
Florida A&M @ Southern +9.8 140.2 86% 57–91 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana +0.8 158.9 58% 81–57 ✗
SE Louisiana @ New Orleans -5.4 141.0 29% 91–71 ✓
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky +1.8 133.4 62% 68–53 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +5.6 149.1 74% 69–76 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Middle Tennessee +3.7 146.7 68% 64–81 ✓
North Florida @ Bellarmine -6.4 160.6 27% 98–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.