Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -1000 LAS +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +1 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -13.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -12.8 (-13.8) | 139.3 (+25.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -11.6 (-12.6) | 138.7 (+26.3) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -12.1 (-13.1) | 138.0 (+27.0) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -13.5 (-14.5) | 138.8 (+26.2) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | SBU 99 – 80 LAS |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAS 78 – 74 SBU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SBU 75 – 73 LAS |
| Feb 21, 2024 | LAS 72 – 59 SBU |
| Feb 9, 2023 | LAS 76 – 70 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#68) | -1.2 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#45) | -0.05 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#48) | -0.27 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#40) | 0.503 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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