We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Ole Miss Rebels
77 65
FINAL Conference
LSU Tigers
Southeastern Conference · The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · January 11, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MISS -9.5 Home covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money MISS -600 / LSU +380
Model Predictions
Spread Total MISS win
Actual MISS +12 142 Won
Massey MISS -9.1 (+2.9)
Massey Totals 148.2 (-6.2)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 97%
Efficiency Plus ML MISS -7.9 (+4.1) 147.3 (-5.3) 80%
Baseline Tuned ML MISS -8.5 (+3.5) 144.4 (-2.4) 80%
Baseline ML MISS -7.2 (+4.8) 144.7 (-2.7) 81%
Baseline Plus ML MISS -8.3 (+3.7) 145.9 (-3.9) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 26, 2026 LSU 10699 MISS
Feb 9, 2025 MISS 7270 LSU
Jan 18, 2024 LSU 8980 MISS
Feb 26, 2023 MISS 8269 LSU
Feb 2, 2022 MISS 7672 LSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MISS LSU
Overall 24-12 14-18
Conference 10-8 3-15
Home 13-3 11-7
Away 5-6 2-8
Neutral 6-3 1-3
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L6
Avg Pts For 77.2 73.8
Avg Pts Against 71.7 73.6
Massey 14.9 (#29) 9.8 (#59)
Bradley-Terry 3.56 (#13) 1.76 (#57)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.90 (#10) 2.29 (#60)
RPI 0.624 (#26) 0.536 (#99)
Shooting & Four Factors MISS LSU
FG% 45.2% 48.0%
3PT% 35.7% 32.8%
REB / G 35.3 39.9
OREB / G 10.3 11.8
AST / TO 1.76 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.7% 54.7%
TOV% 13.1% 18.5%
ORB% 28.8% 34.9%
FT Rate 26.7% 25.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.6% 43.9%
Opp TOV% 22.5% 17.9%
DRB% 71.1% 67.4%
Opp FT Rate 25.4% 20.0%

Game Analysis

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