Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | TCU +115 BYU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -0.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -0.7 (+4.7) | 137.6 (+0.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -0.3 (+3.7) | 135.5 (+2.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -0.7 (+3.3) | 136.2 (+1.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -0.5 (+3.5) | 135.6 (+2.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | BYU 76 – 70 TCU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | BYU 87 – 75 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#65) | 13.0 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#102) | 1.44 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#103) | 2.08 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#116) | 0.547 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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