Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | BYU -300 TCU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +12 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -7.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -5.9 (+6.1) | 157.2 (+4.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -5.4 (+6.6) | 156.9 (+5.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -5.5 (+6.5) | 156.9 (+5.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -5.9 (+6.1) | 156.9 (+5.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | BYU 76 – 70 TCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TCU 71 – 67 BYU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#9) | 13.7 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#26) | 1.99 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#29) | 2.36 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#50) | 0.550 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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