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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–16 on winners spread MAE 9.1 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Gardner-Webb @ High Point	+8.3	149.6	81%	55–96	✓
Oklahoma State @ Utah	+7.2	145.9	76%	62–83	✓
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois	+0.1	138.5	51%	78–88	✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State	+1.6	141.0	58%	85–84	✗
Nevada @ Fresno State	-11.5	148.3	15%	77–66	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State	-11.8	144.3	17%	74–65	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar	+5.5	128.4	72%	72–63	✗
Villanova @ St. John's	+7.0	148.2	78%	68–80	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+11.0	147.0	87%	67–90	✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook	-6.0	138.5	26%	70–66	✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara	+3.3	150.4	65%	54–77	✓
Alabama @ Texas A&M	+0.2	162.3	48%	94–88	✗
Indiana @ Iowa	+6.0	156.6	71%	60–85	✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana State	+4.4	143.6	69%	53–58	✓
Weber State @ Idaho State	+5.9	141.3	75%	77–69	✗
UL Monroe @ Louisiana	+4.9	139.5	69%	68–71	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly	-1.9	150.9	43%	75–72	✓
South Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+11.5	168.9	86%	104–119	✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts	-2.1	157.7	39%	79–83	✗
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech	-2.0	133.4	40%	74–79	✗
Kentucky @ Mississippi State	+4.8	161.8	71%	95–90	✗
UT Arlington @ Southern Utah	+1.2	150.2	57%	68–73	✓
Washington State @ Gonzaga	+13.6	159.8	87%	75–88	✓
Boise State @ Utah State	+7.6	147.2	78%	79–81	✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech	+2.9	132.6	62%	54–58	✓
New Mexico State @ UTEP	+5.1	140.7	75%	85–57	✗
Baylor @ Arizona State	-1.2	141.6	44%	72–66	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield	-2.7	144.6	41%	90–94	✗
UC Irvine @ UC San Diego	+4.2	140.6	70%	60–52	✗
Saint Mary's @ San Diego	-14.6	134.8	13%	103–56	✓
Oregon State @ Pacific	-11.4	141.8	16%	91–55	✓
Abilene Christian @ Seattle U	+6.8	136.9	78%	64–66	✓
UCF @ Arizona	+15.3	159.5	89%	80–88	✓
Michigan State @ Northwestern	-2.1	140.1	36%	78–68	✓
Nebraska @ Purdue	+6.1	139.9	72%	68–104	✓
VMI @ Chattanooga	+8.4	148.0	80%	66–91	✓
Rider @ Niagara	+5.0	134.6	70%	68–65	✗
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+3.8	148.9	67%	75–71	✗
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut	+6.9	127.8	75%	54–52	✗
Quinnipiac @ Iona	-1.5	136.8	42%	63–62	✓
Saint Peter's @ Canisius	-6.1	130.7	23%	62–49	✓
Washington @ Michigan	+15.7	151.3	89%	75–91	✓
Mercyhurst @ Le Moyne	+2.3	138.0	60%	63–79	✓
Stonehill @ Chicago State	-4.7	132.9	27%	68–52	✓
Wright State @ Robert Morris	+0.6	145.4	55%	72–75	✓
Fairfield @ Marist	+8.6	134.7	82%	51–61	✓
Manhattan @ Merrimack	+5.0	140.1	72%	62–69	✓
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's	+6.0	144.9	75%	71–73	✓
West Virginia @ Colorado	-1.9	134.9	41%	78–70	✓
Charlotte @ Tulsa	+0.7	144.4	51%	63–69	✓
Mercer @ Western Carolina	-6.7	146.3	25%	82–85	✗
Oregon @ Penn State	+0.3	151.9	49%	82–81	✗
UAB @ Florida Atlantic	+5.1	162.1	73%	81–76	✗
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock	+5.0	131.8	70%	58–78	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.