Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USU -225 BOIS +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | USU -7.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -7.6 (-5.6) | 147.2 (+12.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.8 (-4.8) | 145.3 (+14.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -7.2 (-5.2) | 145.5 (+14.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -6.9 (-4.9) | 146.5 (+13.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | USU 75 – 56 BOIS |
| Jan 11, 2026 | USU 93 – 68 BOIS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BOIS 82 – 65 USU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | USU 80 – 61 BOIS |
| Jan 27, 2024 | USU 90 – 84 BOIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#39) | 9.8 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#9) | 1.51 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.99 (#9) | 2.02 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#16) | 0.562 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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