Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | USU -200 BOIS +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +19 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USU -4.6 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -4.6 (+14.4) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -4.4 (+14.6) | 143.3 (-2.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -5.3 (+13.7) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -4.8 (+14.2) | 148.3 (-7.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | USU 75 – 56 BOIS |
| Jan 11, 2026 | USU 93 – 68 BOIS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BOIS 82 – 65 USU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | USU 81 – 79 BOIS |
| Jan 27, 2024 | USU 90 – 84 BOIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#39) | 10.7 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#14) | 2.07 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#27) | 2.33 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#8) | 0.600 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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