Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NU +115 MSU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +10 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -3.1 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -1.3 (-8.7) | 140.2 (+5.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -1.6 (-8.4) | 138.3 (+7.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -2.1 (-7.9) | 140.1 (+5.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -1.7 (-8.3) | 139.8 (+6.2) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MSU 76 – 66 NU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MSU 53 – 49 NU |
| Jan 8, 2024 | NU 88 – 74 MSU |
| Dec 5, 2022 | NU 70 – 63 MSU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | NU 64 – 62 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#58) | 17.4 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#70) | 3.42 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#61) | 4.39 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#63) | 0.639 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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