Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +2 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -9.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -8.3 (-10.3) | 151.5 (-25.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -8.7 (-10.7) | 147.3 (-21.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -10.3 (-12.3) | 148.9 (-22.9) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -9.6 (-11.6) | 150.0 (-24.0) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MSU 76 – 66 NU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MSU 78 – 68 NU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MSU 53 – 49 NU |
| Jan 8, 2024 | NU 88 – 74 MSU |
| Dec 5, 2022 | NU 70 – 63 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#22) | 7.5 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#4) | 0.31 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.91 (#5) | 0.64 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.676 (#5) | 0.494 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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