Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
| Money | MSU -280 NU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -7.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -5.2 (-12.2) | 132.2 (+0.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -5.6 (-12.6) | 130.1 (+2.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -4.4 (-11.4) | 131.0 (+2.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -3.7 (-10.7) | 130.5 (+2.5) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MSU 76 – 66 NU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MSU 78 – 68 NU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MSU 53 – 49 NU |
| Jan 8, 2024 | NU 88 – 74 MSU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | NU 64 – 62 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#82) | 4.1 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#68) | 0.94 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#71) | 1.18 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#58) | 0.565 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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