Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -1050 NU +675 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -13.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -12.5 (-2.5) | 141.1 (+0.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -12.5 (-2.5) | 143.8 (-1.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -12.8 (-2.8) | 138.8 (+3.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -13.0 (-3.0) | 139.9 (+2.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2025 | MSU 78 – 68 NU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MSU 53 – 49 NU |
| Jan 8, 2024 | NU 88 – 74 MSU |
| Dec 5, 2022 | NU 70 – 63 MSU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | NU 64 – 62 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-15 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-8 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#14) | 9.1 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#11) | 0.61 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.78 (#11) | 0.84 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.676 (#3) | 0.511 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 2.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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