Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -500 NU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +4 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -8.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -6.4 (-2.4) | 136.0 (-34.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -6.4 (-2.4) | 134.2 (-32.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -6.5 (-2.5) | 138.0 (-36.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -6.3 (-2.3) | 138.6 (-36.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MSU 76 – 66 NU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MSU 78 – 68 NU |
| Jan 8, 2024 | NU 88 – 74 MSU |
| Dec 5, 2022 | NU 70 – 63 MSU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | NU 64 – 62 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#18) | 9.7 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#57) | 2.02 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#41) | 2.63 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#59) | 0.563 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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