Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | NU +135 MSU -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +14 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -6.6 (+20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.2 (+16.2) | 138.2 (+23.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -0.6 (+14.6) | 134.0 (+28.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -2.2 (+16.2) | 135.0 (+27.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -2.6 (+16.6) | 136.1 (+25.9) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MSU 76 – 66 NU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MSU 78 – 68 NU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MSU 53 – 49 NU |
| Dec 5, 2022 | NU 70 – 63 MSU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | NU 64 – 62 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#93) | 16.2 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#34) | 1.53 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#27) | 2.34 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#54) | 0.564 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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