Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -4000 UCF +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +8 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -20.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -15.1 (-7.1) | 160.3 (+7.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -15.3 (-7.3) | 159.5 (+8.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -16.6 (-8.6) | 156.2 (+11.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -16.9 (-8.9) | 159.2 (+8.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ARIZ 81 – 59 UCF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | ARIZ 84 – 77 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 20.3 (#12) | 4.2 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#46) | 2.45 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#36) | 2.80 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#42) | 0.623 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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