Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +370 ARIZ -485 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +7 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -8.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -4.9 (-2.1) | 156.4 (+4.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -7.1 (+0.1) | 156.6 (+4.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -7.2 (+0.2) | 156.0 (+5.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -8.1 (+1.1) | 158.8 (+2.2) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ARIZ 81 – 59 UCF |
| Jan 12, 2025 | ARIZ 88 – 80 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 36-3 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 11-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 86.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#45) | 24.6 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#16) | 6.16 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.89 (#26) | 8.74 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#17) | 0.668 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 52.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 43.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 41.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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